court on May 27, 2025, convicted former National Academy of Sciences researcher and whistleblower, Zhoomart Karabaev, of "incitement of mass disorder" and calling for disobedience to authorities, sentencing him to three years' probation, Human Rights Watch said today. Karabaev was prosecuted in retaliation for his social media posts alleging the systematic fabrication of expert evidence for criminal trials. Karabaev's lawyers said they would appeal the conviction.
Karabaev, a 27-year-old linguistics expert, was detained in July 2024 after posting allegations on Facebook claiming that prosecutors systematically use fabricated expert conclusions in cases against government critics. Authorities then used the posts as alleged evidence of the two offences with which he was charged; prosecutors initially sought seven years in prison.
"Karabaev's posts exposed a practice that would indicate corruption at the heart of what is supposed to be a system of fair trial, which deserves an independent, effective investigation in response, leading to full accountability," said Syinat Sultanalieva, Central Asia researcher at Human Rights Watch. "It is outrageous that, instead, authorities prosecuted and punished the messenger, a chilling sign of how far the state will go to crackdown on free speech and opposing views."
Karabaev's conviction is the latest in a series of incidents that point to corruption in the judicial system, exactly what Karabaev was trying to expose.
In Kyrgyzstan, investigators routinely task linguistic experts with analyzing public statements, interviews, social media posts, and news to conclude whether the material contains elements of incitement to mass disorder, interethnic hate, or calls to violent seizure of power, conclusions that are subsequently used as evidence in court. These are the most common charges that journalists, activists, lawyers, and political opposition members have faced in the past three years; during their trials, such semantic analysis is often the main-if not the only-evidence used to convict them.
However, Karabaev publicly called this into question by alleging that the National Academy of Sciences uses no established methodology or clearly developed criteria when judicially ordered to provide such analyses; instead, academy experts are required to sign statements prepared in advance by the state prosecution or State Committee on National Security (SCNS). He also called out his former academy colleague, Azamat Zhanishbek Uulu, for signing a pre-written conclusion claiming that writer Olzhobay Shakir had committed "incitement" in posts Shakir made publicly disagreeing with the transfer of ownership of several national resorts to Uzbekistan. Based on Zhanishbek Uulu's signed statement, Shakir was subsequently sentenced to five years in prison, which was later modified to three years' probation.
Zhanishbek Uulu has signed expert analyses in at least seven high-profile cases against government critics, activists, and journalists, consistently finding evidence of incitement or extremism. He was also one of three experts who issued conclusions incriminating defendants in a case involving 11 journalists associated with Temirov.Live, an investigative journalism outlet. Four journalists were found guilty, with two sentenced to six and five years in prison respectively, and the others to three years' probation. The journalist sentenced to six years was pardoned in April 2025 by presidential order.
In an outrageous violation of fair process, the prosecution requested that Zhanishbek Uulu provide expert linguistic analysis of Karabaev's posts, which Zhanishbek Uulu found to contain elements of incitement.
Karabaev had been dismissed in 2023 from his position at the National Academy of Sciences, when he refused to alter his court-ordered expert linguistic analysis to suit the prosecution and instead issued a conclusion contrary to what the prosecution sought. The academy subsequently dismissed him for allegedly "disclosing state secrets."
Kyrgyzstan's authorities should immediately seek dismissal of Karabaev's conviction on the basis of charges that should never have been brought in the first place. They should investigate the allegations of expert testimony manipulation, stop using so-called semantic analysis, which proves neither the actus reus or mens rea as evidence of criminal conduct in speech offences, respect and ensure judicial independence, and end the arbitrary prosecutions of government critics. Kyrgyzstan's international partners should press Kyrgyz authorities to uphold their human rights obligations and restore respect for fundamental freedoms.
"This case exposes how Kyrgyzstan's authorities weaponize the justice system against critics," Sultanalieva said. "Until the government stops manipulating courts and expert testimony, no one who speaks truth to power is safe."
